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The United States is in the midst of the worst drug crisis in history. Approximately 1,500 Americans die each week from opioid abuse. according to National Center for Health Statistics, largely Of these deaths were due to overdoses of the synthetic opioid fentanyl. Although highly addictive, the high is short-lived, and dealers often add fentanyl to other drugs to lure unsuspecting users to the cheap synthetic drug.
Fentanyl foreign policy: China and Mexico
The majority of all fentanyl in the United States is thought Most are believed to have crossed the U.S.-Mexico border hiding in commercial vehicles passing through ports of entry. Chinese laboratories were the main source of fentanyl. May 2019, China has worked with the U.S. government to put an entire class of synthetic opioids, including fentanyl, on a regulatory schedule and crack down on labs that send packages of the drug to the United States. China remains the main (albeit indirect) source of fentanyl in the United States. Chinese labs are now selling fentanyl raw material to Mexican drug cartels, which are smuggling the drug across the southern border into the United States.
Voters see the opioid crisis as a national security issue, not a medical issue.
Given the astronomical human costs, it is no surprise that drug trafficking is one of the most salient foreign affairs issues to American voters.
U.S. voters most blame Mexican drug cartels and U.S. drug users for the current wave of fentanyl overdoses, followed by Chinese suppliers of fentanyl and its ingredients, and U.S. This is strong evidence that voters view the opioid crisis as a national security issue rather than a medical issue. Democrats are more likely than other voters to blame drug companies.This makes sense: leftists story They tended to focus on the crisis as a medical problem. Voters living in states on the U.S.-Mexico border (Arizona, California, New Mexico, Texas) are an interesting subgroup. They are 11 points more likely than all voters to say the U.S. government is to blame for the opioid crisis, but they are also slightly more likely to say drug companies are to blame.
Why the opioid crisis is a winning issue for Republicans
Voters seem to view the opioid epidemic primarily as a security issue rather than a medical issue, as they place the greatest blame on drug users in the United States and drug cartels in Mexico. Voters generally trust Republicans more on security and border issues, but they trust Democrats more on health care.
This helps explain the focus Republicans have placed on this issue thus far. Fentanyl was mentioned 12 times during the first Republican debate on August 23rd. Nine references specifically linked it to a Mexican drug cartel, and one linked it to a Chinese lab manufacturing fentanyl or its ingredients.
Voters support partisan solutions, but agree with tighter opioid controls
Republicans generally say enforcement measures such as adding border security (54%), sending U.S. troops to Mexico to fight cartels (41%) and punishing drug violators (43%) will combat the opioid crisis. They are much more likely to consider it an effective method. . Meanwhile, Democrats are 16 points more likely than Republicans to believe that treating opioid addicts will help ameliorate the crisis, echoing recent statements from the White House. action To treat users and prevent overdose. But adults on both sides of the aisle tend to argue for stronger legal restrictions on opioids. in 2022 is an effective treatment.
Drug trafficking poses a risk factor for Democratic candidates in border states
In most cases, voters in border states are similar to other voters in their views about effective relief to the opioid crisis. However, they are 6 percentage points more likely than the general population to say that punishing drug offenders is an effective deterrent. This enforcement trend, coupled with frustration with the federal government over the drug epidemic, will likely lead Arizona’s Democratic Party in the upcoming presidential and Senate elections, as well as in several battleground congressional districts along the border in 2024. It is a risk factor for candidates.
Fentanyl foreign policy will remain in focus throughout 2024
Evidence from more than 50 years of drug wars shows that this problem cannot be solved by blocking supplies from a single foreign source. Solutions are multifaceted and incremental in nature and include measures to address both supply and demand.
However, given the salience of this issue and the relative credibility of the Republican Party on immigration and national security among US voters, Republican candidates will continue to focus on drug trafficking in general during the primaries and into the upcoming election. and is expected to continue to focus on foreign policy, especially fentanyl. To ensure that this issue continues to resonate with voters on both sides of the aisle, even if in different ways.
