Welcome to the online edition From the Political Deskis an evening newsletter bringing you the latest coverage and analysis from the election campaign, the White House and Congress from the NBC News political team.
In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down the biggest weaknesses Joe Biden and Donald Trump will try to address in the debate, plus correspondent Dasha Barnes and producer Abigail Brooks travel to Erie, Pennsylvania, to see how Nikki Haley’s supporters are viewing the general election.
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Biden and Trump face major weaknesses in the debate
Steve Kornacki
Joe Biden and Donald Trump go to the stage on Thursday night’s debate with clear political weaknesses and issues that could mitigate or exacerbate them. Numbers from two CBS News/YouGov polls released this month highlight their core challenges.
At 81, Biden has faced concerns about his age and mental acuity: Though he is only three years older than Trump, voters are more than 10 times more likely to take his age into account than Trump.
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This gap stems from starkly different perceptions of each candidate’s intellectual acuity.
View this graphic on nbcnews.com
Voters are likely to have low expectations for Biden’s performance on Thursday, so a clear, agile and forceful 90-minute presentation could completely transform how Americans view him. Equally, a disorganized, shaky one could reinforce existing concerns and create new ones.
Trump, meanwhile, is carrying the weight of nearly a decade of controversy and incendiary behavior that becomes apparent when voters are asked to rate each candidate’s attitudes. A CBS News/YouGov poll from early JuneThe survey found that 67% of voters said they personally disliked the way Trump had acted so far, compared with 51% who said the same about Biden. Among independents, that number jumps to 74% for Trump and 55% for Biden.
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This is why Biden is virtually tied with Trump in the polls, despite Americans’ deep suspicions about him: Put simply, support for the current president is driven in large part by antipathy toward the former president.
When voters were asked why they supported Biden, A mid-June CBS News/YouGov pollThirty-three percent said they voted because they like the president, while 48% said they voted because they oppose Trump. Among independents who supported Biden, 21% said they voted because they like the president, while 67% said they oppose Trump.
The worst-case scenario for Trump is that this puts a cap on his support, making too many voters too uneasy about him to support him, regardless of their views on Biden.
Trump’s performance on Thursday is unlikely to do much to change his image, but in what is likely to be a close election, warming even a small percentage of Biden’s lukewarm supporters may be all Trump needs. Conversely, if Trump succeeds in confirming those doubts about himself, it may be all Biden needs.
Nikki Haley’s supporters are still undecided in key states
Abigail Brooks and Dasha Barnes
ERIE, Pa. — Nearly four months after Nikki Haley dropped out of the presidential race, many of her supporters remain without a political stronghold.
That’s exactly how Richard Speicher and Mary Gensheimer felt, especially after the “Republicans Against Trump” signs disappeared from their yards. Both cast protest votes in Pennsylvania’s Republican primary in April, even though Haley had already ended her campaign.
“Trump is not the candidate that represents the Republican Party. He may be the candidate that the Republican Party represents right now, but as lifelong Republicans, we come from a very different tradition,” Speicher said. “The only choice was Nikki Haley.”
The couple represent a key constituency in this key battleground county and across the nation heading into what could be another closely decided general election. While many of those who voted for Haley will likely eventually return to support the Republican candidate, others are considering backing President Joe Biden or casting another protest vote in November.
Haley won about 20% of the vote in Erie County in the April primary, six weeks after she ended her candidacy. That’s a warning sign for former President Donald Trump, given that Erie County is the state’s benchmark county. In the last four elections, the county has chosen the state and overall presidential winner. Statewide, Haley won 16.4% of the vote, or about 159,000 votes. It’s a state Trump won by 44,000 votes in 2016 and Biden won by 80,000 votes in 2020.
Haley has since said she will vote for Trump in November’s presidential election, but not all of her supporters are ready to go that far.
The Biden campaign in particular has begun stepping up its outreach to Haley’s supporters by running ads, hiring staff and relying on volunteer work.
Meanwhile, Speicher said he plans to put up Biden signs to replace the ones that were removed.
“The Republican Party as I knew it is dead,” Speicher said. “I don’t know where it goes next.”
Read more about what Haley supporters think →
🗞️ Today’s top news
- 👀 Vice Presidential Candidates: Trump could announce his running mate as early as this week, possibly before Thursday’s debate, according to four people familiar with the matter. Continue reading →
- ✅ Queue: Among Republican senators on President Trump’s running mate list, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio is the most consistent MAGA sympathizer, according to an NBC News analysis of congressional voting records. Read more →
- 🤔 Anticipation Games: In the space of six weeks, Trump went from calling Biden “the worst debater I’ve ever seen” to calling him a “fine debater” who deserves respect. Continue reading →
- ❓ The $64,000 question: Both Biden and Trump are asking voters: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” But the answer will vary widely depending on region, occupation, age, race and lifestyle. Continue reading →
- ⚖️ loosen: The judge presiding over President Trump’s hush money trial lifted part of the gag order two days before the debate. Continue reading →
- 🔵 Being John Fetterman: The New Yorker profiled Pennsylvania Democratic Senator John Fetterman, who has carved his own path in the Senate and emerged as one of its most vocal supporters of Israel, irritating progressives who he sees as turning their backs on him. Read more →
- 🗳️ On Tuesday: It’s another night of low-ranking primary elections. Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a member of the progressive “Squad” and vocal critic of Israel, is in danger of losing to a more moderate candidate in New York, while Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is running in a new congressional district in Colorado. Read more about the hot races →
- 🌵 Local races, national stakes: Steven Richer, a Republican who is an outspoken defender of the election process, is seeking reelection as recorder in Maricopa County, a hotbed of election denialism since 2020. On Monday, he faced off against his Republican primary opponents in his first and only debate. Continue reading →
That’s all from the Politics Desk. If you have any comments, please email us here. [email protected]
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