Tuesday at a polling place on the Arizona State University campus in Phoenix, Arizona. The poll found that three out of 10 Arizona voters who supported the abortion rights ballot measure also voted for Trump.
Matt York/Associated Press
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Matt York/Associated Press
Voters in Arizona, Missouri and Nevada chose Tuesday to advance protections for abortion rights in their state constitutions. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is likely to win the White House and win all three states.
That poses a challenge for Democrats, who had hoped that abortion rights voting efforts in those states would boost the prospects of their candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris. However, data from VoteCast, a large-scale survey of U.S. voters, shows that Associated Press KFF and other partner organizations found that about 3 in 10 voters in Arizona, Missouri and Nevada who supported abortion rights measures also voted for Trump.
“There were a lot of people who voted for abortion access but also voted for Donald Trump,” said Liz Hummel, director of public opinion and research at KFF, a health information nonprofit that includes KFF Health News. speak
VoteCast is the next survey. Over 115,000 registered voters It was conducted in all 50 states from October 28th to November 5th. The survey aims to “understand as accurately as possible who voted and why.” According to the Associated Press.
This pattern of voters supporting abortion rights but choosing Trump over Harris holds true in all 10 states that have abortion rights protections on their ballots.
About one in four voters polled said abortion was the “single most important” factor in their vote, but that number was lower among Democrats, young women, black adults, and Hispanic adults. It was expensive.
Abortion rights referendums passed Tuesday in seven states, including Missouri and Arizona, overturning their respective bans. Vice President Harris has made reproductive rights a cornerstone of her campaign, and VoteCast’s results confirmed previous research that showed economic concerns were the top issue in the election.
Tuesday’s election was the first presidential election since the U.S. Supreme Court’s conservative majority was overturned. Roe vs. Wade. During his first term, President Trump nominated three Supreme Court justices who later joined the 2022 decision eliminating women’s constitutional right to abortion care.
Mike Islam, 20, voted for Trump in Madison, Wisconsin, where he is a full-time student. She said abortion was “a woman’s right” and “definitely was in the back of my mind” when she voted.
“I don’t think much will change” regarding access to abortion during President Trump’s second term, he said. “I think his policy is to just give it back to the states and from there the states can decide how important it is.”
The survey found that the percentage of voters who said abortion was the most important factor in their vote was similar in states with and without abortion measures on their ballots.
Survey results show that voters are more motivated when voting by economic concerns and the cost of filling up their gas tank, housing, and food. Mr. Trump certainly won over these voters in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as in Republican states.
Republican campaign strategist Glenn Bolger said the 2022 election results show that Republican candidates are better off talking about the economy and the cost of living than they are about abortion.
Bolger said Trump’s voters, who supported the abortion rights amendment this year, may have decided to accept him “on Trump’s word that he would not support a national ban.” . In voting for Trump, he said, Trump’s supporters may have thought, “I’m going to vote for him based on the cost of living, health care, gas, and everything else.”
The VoteCast survey found stronger support for abortion voting among female voters (72% of women in Nevada, 69% in Arizona, and 62% in Missouri).
Erica Wallace, 39, of Miami, voted for Harris and in favor of Florida’s abortion rights ballot measure, which fell just short of the 60% threshold needed to amend the state constitution. .
“As a grown woman, you go out and work and live your life,” says Wallace, an executive director who lives in Miami. The state’s ban criminalizes abortions before many women even realize they are pregnant, they said, amounting to unequal treatment of women.
“I pay taxes. I live well,” she said. “I’m doing everything that other citizens are doing.”
Men were more likely to vote against protecting abortion rights. On abortion rights ballot initiatives, men voted 67% in Nevada, 64% in Arizona, and 55% in Missouri.
A VoteCast poll found that voters overall think Harris is better at managing health care. This is consistent with the long-standing view that “Democrats traditionally have an advantage when it comes to health care,” Hamel said. Still, Mr. Trump’s approval rating exceeded Ms. Harris among more than half of voters who said they were very concerned about health care costs.
Family premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance increased 7% in 2024 to an average of $25,572 per year, according to KFF. 2024 Employer Health Benefits Survey. On average, workers contribute $6,296 a year to the cost of family insurance.
“Everyone is affected by high health care costs, but no one has a solution,” Bolger said. “That’s something voters are very dissatisfied with.”
Florence Robbins in Madison, Wisconsin, and Dennis Hruby in Miami contributed to this report.
KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism on health issues and is one of KFF’s core operating programs.
