Former President Donald Trump officially relinquished his 2016 term motion promise Repeal the Affordable Care Act. he is now To tell If elected to a second term, he would “make the ACA much better than it currently is and significantly reduce its costs.”
of policy U turn Statements by the presumptive Republican presidential nominee: accusation President Joe Biden has said that President Trump is seeking to “end” the Obamacare health insurance program.
But President Trump’s new emphasis on increasing government involvement in health care, rather than eliminating it, is actually more in line with Republican voters than traditional thinking.repeal and replaceAccording to a new study from American Compass.”
of investigation Measured the “desire for government” of 1,000 Americans. It turns out that the average Republican is hungry for more federal solutions, or at least reluctant to remove anything from the current Congress.
Republicans were more likely to have negative views of Washington, D.C., favoring rhetoric about tax cuts and smaller government, while entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare are at the heart of Congress’ spiral of deficit spending. showed strong support for expanding or maintaining the .
More than half of Republicans (56%) want the federal government to increase support for seniors through Medicare and Social Security benefits, according to the poll. Nearly 40% want the federal government to continue at its current level of support for seniors. Only 7% wanted the effects to be reduced.
This ratio was higher among Republicans when asked about federal aid for people who can’t afford insurance, such as Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, as well as federal aid for the poor and disabled. , is repeated to varying degrees. More than twice as many Republicans want to expand these programs as those who want to shrink them.
American Compass policy director Chris Griswold said the poll, conducted in March, disproves at least three myths about Republican voters at a time of widespread political realignment. That is, Republican voters broadly 1) believe that government is bad in all things, 2) prefer smaller government, and 3) want to reduce the welfare state.
“These seem to be assumptions that the political class in Washington, D.C., have about American voters, especially American conservative voters, but they don’t seem to be true,” Griswold told the Deseret News.
Griswold said the conflict between the conservative consensus of “Paul Ryan” Republicans (e.g., privatizing Social Security and cutting Medicare) and what many conservative voters want is He said it was a “warning sign for politicians,” especially Republican candidates. Bringing together a more diverse working class.
But other members of Mr. Griswold’s so-called “pundit class” argue that polls are at best a rough road map for politicians, because they include ignorant respondents and paradoxical responses, and that public policy He strongly argues that it is almost impossible for it to serve as a compass for the world.
Expert policies and populist concerns
“Polls should not dictate public policy,” said Scott Linthicum, vice president of general economics at the libertarian Cato Institute.
Linthicum said policy preference surveys often yield contradictory answers. People want higher tariffs, but they also want lower prices. They want less bureaucracy and more welfare. Although there is responsible state spending, there are no reforms to make social security sustainable.
The results of the American Compass poll did not dispel the conventional wisdom about Linthicum. This reinforced his belief that there has always been a “disconnect” between Republican voters’ principles and their obsession with “certain rights, primarily Social Security and Medicare.”
Mr Linthicum said elected representatives have a duty to reflect the values and goals of their constituents, but they should not expect the public to be “policy geeks”. Instead, he continued, we need to dig into the details with the help of think tank academics like himself who understand that the current federal government’s big-money policies are “unsustainable.” .
In the first months of 2024, the national debt will be $34.5 trillionincreasing by approximately $1 trillion annually 100 days This results in interest payments. Be expected It is expected to exceed national defense spending by the end of the year.
The annual deficit, which occurs when spending exceeds tax revenue, is primarily caused by automatic government payments. half According to the federal government, the annual federal budget is allocated to redistribution programs such as Social Security (21% of the budget), Medicare (12%), Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and the Affordable Care Act. It is being Focus on budget and policy priorities.
Research director Michael Watson says policymakers’ job is not to explain what’s popular, but rather to predict negative outcomes, such as higher inflation, economic stagnation or, if they do nothing, a global recession. The idea is to specify what kind of trade-offs must be made to avoid this. At the conservative Capital Research Center.
“I model public policy in terms of broccoli and ice cream,” Watson said. “And what we learned from that poll is that people want to eat ice cream instead of broccoli. And I think if you look at the current size of the national debt, you can see the consequences of that kind of policy. ”
Watson criticized American Compass for being at least partially funded. progressive non-profit organization, said the Republican Party is far from a libertarian austerity tool and has more often seen lawmakers willing to serve soft-serve ice cream than vegetables. Ultimately, Watson said, policymakers need to communicate what fiscal conservatism actually entails.
“Entitlement reform is the ultimate broccoli policy,” Watson said, referring to former House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) proposal to partially privatize Social Security.
“At some point,” Watson continued, “you go to the doctor and the doctor says your artery is 75 percent blocked and you either have to have emergency surgery or you have to stop eating ice cream.”
A Republican Party without fiscal restraint?
But for many Republican voters, it is the think tank’s proposals that seem out of step with their economic preferences, not the other way around.
According to an American Compass poll, 81% of Republicans believe Social Security is one of America’s great achievements and must be protected for future generations. Only 19% said the system is a “disaster” and that the federal government should not provide retirement benefits it cannot afford.
Expressions of support for the program came after poll respondents read a balanced description of Social Security, stating that, “Currently, the amount paid each year is far greater than the amount collected in payroll taxes. In many cases, this is the main cause of the increase in the fiscal deficit.”
Results like these show Republican voters in the Trump era are “hungry for something different than what’s been offered in the past,” Griswold said.
Even the fact that 61% of Republicans say they prefer lower taxes and less government, compared to 15% of Democrats, suggests that minimalism in government is no longer a “non-negotiable stake in Republican politics.” Griswold said it’s a sign of not being seen. .
This shift in what it means to be a Republican was spurred by the unexpected success of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, but it also broke with popular “Republican orthodoxy” when President Trump said he would not reduce any rights. Griswold said it was a violation. This trend continues under President Trump, who has said he will not try to repeal Obamacare.
Griswold said the contrast between Republicans’ openness to a federal solution and their dissatisfaction with what they’ve gotten points to the need for a “new economic deal” and that “good leaders are very “It shows us a path that we should take seriously, but that shouldn’t happen.” Reflexively anti-government, but also to ensure that government actions center working families and communities. ”
Linthicum said it’s hard to know what path the Republican Party will take as long as Trump “leads the show.” But he believes that if Republicans adopt American Compass’ policy prescriptions of raising taxes, raising tariffs, tightening antitrust regulations and expanding the welfare state, the country will be plagued by “left-wing Democrats and right-wing parties.” I am concerned that this may be the case. Wing Democratic Party. ”
Without the Republican Party as a “counterbalance” to the Democratic Party, Watson said, we would continue to eat ice cream, our arteries would harden, we would not follow our doctors’ advice, and we’ll see. everyone knows. ”
