Next pandemic deemed the ‘Big One’ could be the most contagious and deadliest disease known to humanity, scientists warn

• The Paramyxoviridae family includes over 75 viruses, including mumps and measles
• Scientists do not understand how it is transmitted through different species
• Read more: Nipah virus vaccine could save lives

The next pandemic, dubbed the ‘Big One’, could be ‘smoldering in the background’, with the most contagious and deadliest disease known to humanity waiting to emerge .

The Paramyxoviridae family includes more than 75 viruses, including mumps, measles, and respiratory tract infections, and was added to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases list of pandemic pathogens of interest in October.

One virus, the Nipah virus, can infect cells with receptors that control what enters and exits cells in the central nervous system and vital organs.

This variant has a mortality rate of up to 75 percent compared to the new coronavirus, but is well below 1 percent.

Scientists say that while influenza and the new coronavirus are “rapidly shape-changing viruses,” paramyxoviruses do not seem to mutate as they spread, but “transmission among humans is slow.” It’s very powerful,” he said.

“Imagine what would happen if a paramyxovirus emerged that was as contagious as measles and as deadly as Nipah,” Michael Norris, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto, said in a statement.

It’s not hard to imagine that scenario. The 2011 film Contagion is based on exactly this type of imaginary paramyxovirus.

Starring Matt Damon, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Kate Winslet. A woman returning from a business trip in Hong Kong brought back a deadly microorganism that has sparked a global pandemic. The disease was Nipah virus.

“We know the mortality sequence for influenza,” said Ben-Hur Lee, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. atlantic.

Lee went on to explain that most people infected with any of the more than 75 viruses do not survive, making it nearly impossible to develop treatments or vaccines, which is not the case with paramyxoviruses.

The first Rinderpest in this family was identified in 1902.

Rinderpest, or cattle plague, is a contagious viral disease that affects artiodactyl animals.

The disease was the second disease in history to be completely eradicated in 2011, after smallpox in 1980.

Scientists have known about paramyxoviruses for more than a century, but they still don’t understand how the viruses migrate into new species, mutate, and infect humans.

For example, mumps was long thought to infect only humans and some primates, but cases have now been found in bats.

There is also mystery about how paramyxoviruses can cause a mild infection in one host and kill another.

Paul Dupleix, a virologist at the University of Pittsburgh, told The Atlantic that Rubulavirus, a member of the Paramyxovirinae subfamily that includes mumps, is of concern.

Humans, apes, pigs, and dogs are natural hosts and are easily infected at close range.

Then there’s measles, which was first recorded by Persian doctors in the 9th century.

It wasn’t until 1757 that a Scottish doctor discovered the infectious agent that caused the virus in a patient’s blood.

Emmy de Wit, director of the Molecular Etiology Unit at Rocky Mountain Research Institute, told The Atlantic that measles could eventually be eradicated, eliminating the need for vaccination.

But when this happened with smallpox, mpox appeared to take its place.

The report “Strengthening Australia’s pandemic preparedness” published in 2022 mentions the following about paramyxoviruses: “Viruses are moving from animals to humans at an ‘alarming rate’ as the world continues to better understand the connections between human, animal, plant and environmental health.”

“In addition to known viruses, on average, two new viruses emerge in humans every year, increasing the rate at which they cause larger epidemics.

“Many of these viruses have pandemic potential, meaning they can spread across multiple continents.”