COVID-19 is on the rise for the fourth straight summer, but this year’s wave of warming appears to be milder than the pandemic emergency.
Indicators of COVID-19 Hospitalizations, emergency room visits, positive test rates, and wastewater levels have all increased over the past month, with no peak in sight yet, according to data tracked by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Between June 10 and July 29, the positive test rate rose from 4.1% to 8.9%. For reference, in the recent winter wave, the positive test rate peaked at 10.6 percent on December 31, 2022.
But on the bright side, weekly Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths remain at their lowest levels since the start of the pandemic. So far, despite delays in reporting data, the number of deaths does not appear to have increased. Weekly new admissions have increased slightly, rising from about 6,300 in the week of 24 June to about 8,000 in the week of 22 July.
Full data put the death toll in recent weeks at between 500 and 400. excess deathDeaths above expected baseline levels are no longer observed in CDC data. This means that the weekly all-cause death toll in the United States is now in line with the expected number of pre-pandemic deaths.
The seemingly mild wave is likely due to a combination of factors, including vaccines, immunity from past infections, and the fact that previous waves have killed many vulnerable people. The cumulative death toll in the United States from the COVID-19 pandemic has surpassed 1.1 million.
Still, the virus is surging again this summer, raising questions about whether the summer wave will become a regular seasonal cycle for the virus. Many medical experts view SARS-CoV-2 as primarily a cold-weather virus, similar to other respiratory pathogens such as cold and flu viruses, which multiply and surge during the fall and winter. . For example, the Food and Drug Administration modeled its COVID-19 booster program around what is used for annual flu shots.
However, the seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 is still unclear, and researchers don’t know exactly what is causing the summer waves. Summer waves often start in the south of the country. A leading hypothesis is that the increase coincides with summer vacations, travel and gatherings.
Another potential driver of the wave is newly emerging variants. Now the new micron subvariant isexample 5This is related to XBB.1.9.2. gain an edge in the United States It surpasses the previously reigning variants XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16. However, surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants has declined sharply, with the CDC estimating variant prevalence in 3 of 10 national health regions (California, New York, and areas around the Southeast). only have enough data to
Based on an FDA advisory committee meeting in June, vaccine makers are likely to roll out their latest COVID-19 boosters targeting XBB subvariant strains this fall. Probably XBB.1.5.
