Officials in California and beyond fall winter A wave of coronaviruses is possible, but one of the key factors is the growth of several new subvariants that are now emerging.
Like Omicron and Delta, it’s too early to tell if any of the newer variants will rise to prominence. None have been recorded in significant numbers in California or the country. Still, experts say another hyper-diffuse subvariant, coupled with more people staying indoors when it gets colder, could pose new challenges.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, Biden’s chief medical adviser for pandemics, said: Said In a recent virtual talk from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
An increase in COVID-19 cases is widely expected this fall and winter. New York has already posted gains since hitting a seasonal low in early September.
For now, California is in a lull, with cases and hospitalizations declining since mid-summer. But in Los Angeles County, weekly death tolls are still rising, well above their spring lows.
“We are all gearing up for some more infections this fall. If it can be done, I think it will really help everyone try to limit the chances of seeing a very large surge, said Surgeon General Barbara Feller.
But officials cannot rule out the possibility of a serious wave given the unpredictability of the coronavirus.
“We’ve seen so much uncertainty that it would be silly not to prepare for it,” Ferrer said. “This is a coronavirus. It mutates a lot. You can’t change that reality. [But] We are very optimistic. We have great tools. “
Following the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine, previous surges in the pandemic coincided with the emergence of new or subspecies that were highly contagious and evaded the protection offered by the vaccine or previous infections.
Such constant mutations make the coronavirus a moving target. As such, officials are almost certain that California and the United States are in a relatively favorable position heading into the colder months, but with supplies of vaccines, treatments ready, and Updated booster shots —they keep their eyes on the horizon.
Most of the problematic variants are mentioned using letters of the Latin alphabet (epsilon, alpha, delta, omicron).
Omicron ruled the world since last time And today’s viral landscape is now characterized by different sub-variants of its strains. They are designated not by Latin letters but by alphanumeric identifiers that have become more complex over time.
Among them is BA.2.75.2, which Fauci calls “suspicious – [troublesome] Mutant. “
BA.2.75.2 is not widely found in the United States, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention does not count it separately from the less worrisome but similarly named BA.2.75.
“The BA.2.75.2 is of most concern these days,” said Dr. Benjamin Pinsky, director of the Institute of Clinical Virology at Stanford University.
In his lab at Stanford University, scientists have identified only one case of that subvariant, he said.
A concern with BA.2.75.2 is that past vaccinations or population antibodies primed from previous cases may be less capable of recognizing this new subvariant and preventing infection.
Specifically, preprint study Published in mid-September by scientists from Europe and Africa.
This study also Anti-COVID drug Evusheld Less effective against BA.2.75.2. Evusheld is a monoclonal antibody given to people with weakened immune systems to prevent coronavirus infection. another monoclonal antibody, bebuterobimabI was still able to detect BA.2.75.2.
“Together, these data identify profound antibody evasion by the emerging omicron sublineage BA.2.75.2, suggesting that it effectively evades currents. [antibody] population immunity,” the report said.
Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, says two of the relevant subvariants are BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1.
“They are already established as the most extreme immune evasion ever seen,” he said. BA.5 — The currently dominant Omicron subvariant — “Not a good thing.”
By immune escape, “our immune system has so many different mutations that it can’t recognize it very well, so basically there are workarounds,” Topol said. “It’s never been seen before and has enough mutations to be able to invade despite the immune response, so there’s a blind spot in the immune response.”
Another subvariant, BA.2.3.20, has many mutations that may make it worse, but its level of escape has not been characterized, Topol said. . His fourth mutation of note is known as XBB.
What all these new subvariants have in common is that they “have a growing advantage,” Topol said.
Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, looks at another subvariant, BF.7, also known as BA.5.2.1.7. This may have contributed to a sizeable proportion of cases in Belgium and other European countries.
“it seems like BF.7 Chinghong said. “This grandson [of the original Omicron strain] The increase means that many people in Europe are already infected, so immunity can probably be circumvented.
CDC data indicate that none of these subvariants circulate at high levels in the United States.And there is hope that it has been updated divalent booster — Created specifically to target BA.5 and another Omicron subvariant, BA.4, with additional protection for descendants of these subvariants such as BF.7 and BA.4.6 Offers.
However, a concern about other strains with high levels of immune escape, including BA.2.75.2, is that they may initiate new surges and reinfect recently recovered people. superseded BA.2.12.1.
“What we learned at Omicron is that even those who get the vaccine can die if they don’t get a boost,” Chinhong said. “And it’s disproportionately affecting older people.”
“If a subvariant that truly evades immunity emerges, it means more people will be infected because the ‘force field’ as a community is generally broken. And more people will be infected.” As they age, they become more susceptible to infection, and therefore infection in older people, if not boosted, can lead to serious illness.
“I think hospitals should be vigilant,” he added.
People at low risk of severe COVID-19 — people who have some immunity from vaccination or previous infections — are less likely to suffer severe illness and death.Even if they do get infected, other parts of their immune system longer rotationand works regardless of subvariant, so it is expected to respond and reduce the risk of severe disease.
But those at higher risk need to stimulate their immune system more often with booster shots to better protect themselves. said Chin-Hong.
One of the darker scenarios is the worst trait where new subvariants combine to form another new version.
“One of the questions that people have is recombination, that is, can you combine one best feature with another? And then at some point, randomly, say, BA.2.75.2 We get one with immune evasion and BF.7 contagiousness,” Chin-Hong said.
For those at high risk, COVID-19 still causing hospitalizations and deaths, especially among unvaccinated people. About 350 to 500 Americans have died each day from her COVID-19 since August, and extrapolating this over a year puts him four to five times as many deaths from the flu in an average year. will be doubled.
Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator, said: Said Tuesday, at the Strategic and International Studies Center forum.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, which has been less affected by the pandemic than LA County, some experts suggest the days of local mask mandates are over.
But Los Angeles County health officials say they may be more optimistic this winter, but they should be prepared for a scenario where booster injections are less helpful than expected due to new subtypes.
As a result, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has not ruled out re-enforcing mask mandates should hospital conditions become critical.
“I think when you’re in a situation where there’s a threat to the healthcare system and you’re surrounded by seriously ill people, people are willing to follow,” said Ferrer. “These are sensible public health precautions.”
She wondered if health officials elsewhere in California would reassess safety measures if hospitals strained again. It was the first to reinstate mask mandates in response.
“We’re also so down-to-earth that we know there’s always a place in the rules to make sure collective interests can actually be realized,” Ferrer said.
