- As more people start taking GLP-1 weight loss drugs, the US economy will experience rapid growth.
- Goldman Sachs predicted that if 60 million Americans took GLP-1 drugs, America’s GDP would rise by 1%.
- “A key reason for the economic upturn from healthcare innovation is that poor health imposes significant economic costs,” Goldman Sachs said.
estimates that the more people who take GLP-1 weight loss drugs, the faster the U.S. economy will grow. Goldman Sachs.
The bank said in a note Thursday that if 60 million Americans took GLP-1 drugs by 2028, U.S. GDP would grow an additional 1%.
The idea behind Goldman’s predictions is that worsening health conditions will reduce total labor supply and total hours worked by increasing “absentee days” at work, premature deaths, and informal care taking away people’s livelihoods. The idea is that this could put a heavy burden on economic growth. Labor force.
Goldman Sachs says, “Taken together, current reductions in working hours and labor force participation due to illness, disability, premature death, and informal caregiving mean that if declining health conditions did not limit the U.S. labor supply, GDP would be 10% lower.” We estimate that this could increase by more than %.” Economist Jan Hadzius said:
So a drug that holds great promise for improving a wide range of patient health conditions could ultimately have a huge impact on the overall economy.
“A key reason why we see large positive effects from innovations in health care is that poor health imposes significant economic costs. There are several ways in which poor health can weigh on economic activity. “However, if the health situation improves, economic activity may decline,” Hadsius said.
From GLP-1 drugs novo nordisk and Eli Lilly It is sold under the brand names Ozempic and Mounjaro as a treatment for type 2 diabetes, and under the brand names Wegovy and Zepbound as a treatment for obesity.
of Sales of the drug are exploding because it causes dramatic weight loss It accounts for about 20% of body weight and has shown promising signs in improving sleep apnea and reducing the number of cardiac events such as strokes and heart attacks.
And with the U.S. obesity rate hovering around 40%, many Americans may end up taking these drugs in the coming years.
Goldman estimates that 10 million to 70 million Americans will be taking GLP-1 drugs by 2028, but the range depends on adequate supply, insurance coverage, and clinical trial results. Depends on uncertainty.
“If the use of GLP-1 ultimately increases to this extent and obesity rates decline, we think there will be significant ripple effects throughout the economy,” Hadsius said.
One ripple effect is increased productivity. Hatzius cited academic research showing that obese people are less likely to work and, when they do, are less productive.
“Thus, these estimates suggest that obesity-related health complications subtract more than 3% from per capita output, combined with the incidence of obesity in the U.S. population exceeding 40%. “This means a hit of more than 1% to total production,” Hazzius explained.
And if improved health outcomes lead to further productivity gains, the impact on GDP growth above current trends could be between 0.6% and 3.2%.
“Historically, advances in health have led to 10% fewer years of life lost to disease and disability per decade in DM economies, and if health progress advances by 10 years beyond current trends, the U.S. We estimate that healthcare standards could rise by 1%, leading to a 1% increase in GDP,” Hadzius said.
