The strong labor market continued in March, with the unemployment rate at 3.8%, the 26th consecutive month that the unemployment rate remained below 4%.
The economy added 303,000 jobs, according to monthly statistics. report The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday. Economists, researchers and policy experts say the strong but no longer overheated labor market should be encouraging news for the Fed as it decides whether to cut interest rates after a long anti-inflation campaign.
Aaron Sojourner, an economist and senior fellow at the W.E. Upjohn Employment Institute, a nonprofit research institute headquartered in Kalamazoo, Michigan, said the labor market is “strong and healthy.”
“It’s notable that the economy has added more than 300,000 jobs to date, and job growth appears to be accelerating,” Sojourner said.
Which sectors are adding jobs?
Health care and government continued to add jobs in March, with the two sectors adding 72,000 and 71,000 jobs, both higher than the monthly average.
Elyse Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based economic policy think tank, said government is an area where economists expect further growth in education-related jobs. He added that public sector workers can also drive job growth in the private sector.
49,000 jobs were added and hospitality and leisure returned to pre-pandemic levels for the first time. Researchers and economists took this development as a good sign for the economy and workers. Mr Gould said this was a “fantastic milestone”, but noted that many sectors had already reached or exceeded that level.
Sojourner said it may be a good sign that leisure and hospitality has taken this long to return to this level of employment.
“The fact that it didn’t recover quickly is good news in some ways, because many people are finding better opportunities outside of the industry, and employers are increasing their pay and the quality of work they offer to attract people. ‘Because we had to raise the sector,’ he said.
The construction industry also added 39,000 jobs, nearly double the average monthly employment increase over the past year.
Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, a Washington, D.C.-based policy research and advocacy group, said it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly what’s driving the job growth. CHIPS and the Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Agreement have supported construction industry jobs. Home construction is “pretty strong,” he said. However, these jobs could also lead to construction employment growth in the spring.
What do experts think about the rise in black unemployment?
Employment data for the past four months showed the black unemployment rate rose from 5.2% in December to 6.4% in March. The unemployment rate for black women was 5.6%, up from 4.4% last month and 4.1% a year ago. The unemployment rate for black men was 6.2%, compared with 6.1% in February and 5.1% a year ago.
Gould said the rise in black unemployment is concerning because it’s been happening for months, but it’s not yet alarming because of the volatility in the data collected.
“I think this is something we need to keep an eye on,” she said.
Sojourner said that while more data is needed, there are no signs that more black people in particular are entering the labor market and looking for work, but that black people are having a harder time finding jobs. They agreed that it’s important to keep a close eye on unemployment rates for Black Americans, where they are. work.
He added that recessions tend to affect black people before other groups.
“This is very concerning because Black Americans are often at the forefront…the first to feel the effects of a recession,” he said.
What can employment in the prime of life tell us?
The working-age population, or the ratio of people aged 25 to 54 who are employed, is also quite high at 80.7% this month. It reached an all-time high in April 2000. 81.9%.
Amarnath said this was encouraging news.
“Right now we are operating at a particularly high level. Ideally, we could continue to rise throughout the year, but this is a level that, prior to the last 12 months, I don’t think we were at over 20 years ago. However…” he said. “You think this [prime age employment] This is considered the best way to assess the number of people employed, adjusting for population aging and adjusting for changes in participation. ”
Are wages growing at a healthy rate?
Wages continue to outpace inflation, rising 4.1% over the past year. It rose 12 cents (0.3%) in March. Gould said wage increases and job additions indicate a stable job market but do not threaten the Federal Reserve’s attempts to curb inflation.
“When you look at these wage growth numbers, I think it’s clear that wage growth continues to normalize, roughly in line with the Fed’s goals, as inflation continues to decline. I think we’re getting to where we want to be, and I think the Fed is getting to where they want to be as well. We’re seeing significant employment growth, and that’s promising. Opportunities. “More people are returning to the labor force because they want to,” she said.
