Recent studies suggest that reducing processed meat consumption by about one-third could prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes in the United States over a 10-year period. Researchers from the University of Edinburgh and the University of North Carolina developed a simulation tool to analyze the health impacts of reducing processed and unprocessed red meat consumption. The study found that there could be significant health benefits, including reduced cases of cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer, especially among white men and middle-income individuals. While more research is called for due to limited data on unprocessed red meat, the study highlights a win-win situation for health and environmental sustainability.
Research shows that reducing processed meat consumption by about one-third in the United States could prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes over a decade. Cardiovascular disease Incidence of colon cancer also decreased. The researchers used microsimulation to analyze the effects of reducing intake of processed and unprocessed red meat on a range of health outcomes.
A study suggests that cutting processed meat consumption by about one-third could help prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes in the United States within 10 years.
Researchers say that reducing processed meat intake by 30 percent among American adults — the equivalent of about 10 slices of bacon per week — would also reduce tens of thousands of cases of cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer.
A team from the Academy of Global Agriculture and Food Systems at the University of Edinburgh, in collaboration with the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, has developed a simulation tool to estimate the health impacts of reducing consumption of processed and unprocessed red meat.
Many studies have linked high processed meat consumption to chronic disease, but few have assessed the impact on various health outcomes, and previous research has suggested that unprocessed red meat may contribute to chronic disease risk, but the evidence is still limited.
simulation result
The researchers used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Health Survey to create a simulated representative sample of the U.S. adult population, a so-called microsimulation.
Their microsimulation is the first to estimate the range of health effects of reducing processed and unprocessed red meat consumption in the United States by between 5 and 100 percent.
The researchers estimated how changes in meat consumption would affect the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer and mortality in adults, both for the overall population and separately based on age, sex, household income and ethnicity.
According to the researchers, reducing processed meat intake by 30% could prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes, as well as reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease by 92,500 and colorectal cancer by 53,300 over a 10-year period.
In this scenario, they found that white men and people with annual household incomes between $25,000 and $55,000 saw the greatest health benefits.
Comparison of meat types
The researchers also analyzed the effects of reducing only unprocessed red meat intake versus reducing consumption of both processed and unprocessed red meat.
A 30 percent reduction in consumption of both resulted in 1,073,400 fewer cases of diabetes, 382,400 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease, and 84,400 fewer cases of colon cancer.
Reducing unprocessed red meat intake by just 30 percent — about one fewer 1/4-pound beef burger per week — was associated with more than 732,000 fewer cases of diabetes, 291,500 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease, and 32,200 fewer cases of colorectal cancer.
The finding that reducing unprocessed red meat compared with processed meat prevented more disease cases is partly due to the higher average daily intake of unprocessed red meat than processed meat (47 grams versus 29 grams, respectively).
Because the effect of eating unprocessed red meat on chronic disease risk is not yet known, the researchers say these estimates should be interpreted with caution and that more research is needed.
Professor Lindsay Jacks, Personal Chair in the School of Global Health and Nutrition at the University of Edinburgh and one of the study’s authors, said: “Reducing meat consumption to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been recommended by national and international organisations, including the Committee on Climate Change here in the UK and the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our research shows that these dietary changes could also have significant health benefits in the US – clearly a win-win for people and the planet.”
Reference: “Estimating the effects of reducing processed meat and unprocessed red meat consumption in the United States on type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality: a microsimulation study,” Joe Kennedy, Peter Alexander, Lindsay Smith-Taley, Lindsay M. Jacks, July 2024, Lancet Planetary Health.
DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00118-9
The research was funded by the Wellcome Trust.
