- Despite being in the Gulf, Rafael is not expected to pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
- If Rafael tracks west of the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane, it would be the only November hurricane to do so since 1851.
- Rafael could then curve further to the southwest next week than other November storms.
- The cold fronts and strong jet streams typical of November usually push storms eastward or destroy them.
Typically, when you see a hurricane in the Gulf Coast, the entire Gulf Coast is holding its breath. But Rafael doesn’t seem to be nervous at all at the moment. That’s because all signs point to the storm drifting along the Gulf Coast into next week and possibly not making landfall at all.
However, Rafael is still noteworthy. Here’s why:
If the storm tracks west of the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane, it will be the only November hurricane since 1851.
A rather strange predicted course for Raphael over the next five days.
(Prediction: NHC)
hurricane JeanneThe 1980 hurricane is the only November hurricane that resembles at least some of Rafael’s predicted track. Jeanne arrived in the Gulf of Mexico and rapidly strengthened to a Category 2 strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
“As with Rafael, Jeanne was steered westward in the Gulf by an upper-northern high system, but then lost control in the atmosphere and slowed down,” Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan・Mr. Erdmann explained.
As Jeanne moved west of the Yucatan Peninsula, the storm weakened to a tropical storm. Ultimately, a cold front and dry air brought about Jeanne’s final demise.
(For even more detailed weather data tracking for your area, check out our detailed 15-minute forecast. Premium Pro Experience. )
Why are Rafael’s trucks so rare?
off Only six other Gulf Coast hurricanes occurred in November.five of which were in the eastern Gulf Coast.
“Typically, there are no storms in the western Gulf in November because the jet stream is stronger over much of the southern U.S. and Gulf Coast,” Erdman said. “That powerful jet typically either pushes the November storm toward Florida and the Caribbean, or tears it apart.”
As cold fronts and associated dry air become more common in the South in November, dry air could quickly derail a storm’s chances of survival near the Gulf Coast. That’s because cold fronts act as a kind of wall, blocking the passage of storms. As a result, very few November storms make landfall on the Gulf Coast.
out of 287 Hurricane NOAA’s database includes only those that made landfall in the continental United States. Four of them did so in November.. Most recently, Hurricane Nicole hit Florida in 2022 as a late-season Category 1 hurricane.
But cold fronts typically don’t reach Florida in November, leaving an opportunity for the Sunshine State. So if a storm forms or enters the Gulf of Mexico in November, it is most likely to make landfall in Florida.
What drives Rafael?
Rafael’s future path is becoming more interesting day by day. It is expected that it will continue to weaken and slow down. Meanwhile, another ridge of high pressure could form to the west or northwest and drag southwest into early next week.
“If it can survive in the dry air, its jog to the southwest could move it into areas of lower wind shear, meaning it could survive into next week in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.” explained Erdman. He added: “A November storm in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico would be unprecedented in historical databases dating back to the mid-19th century.”
Monday’s Forecast Path and Upper Level Pattern
(The red blobs indicate the latest forecast “cone” for Rafael from the National Hurricane Center. The “H” and other contour lines indicate the general formation of an upper-level ridge that could push Rafael south or southwest on Monday. ) indicates the expected location.
Typical impact area of November storms
In the satellite era since 1966, November has averaged a storm every 1-2 years and a hurricane once every 2-3 years.
In many cases, the Caribbean and parts of Central America were the hardest hit by November’s hurricanes.
When storms occur in November, they usually occur in the western Caribbean or the southwestern or central Atlantic. This is because environmental factors are better suited for development. Wind shear is usually quite low, cold fronts usually don’t reach this far south, and water temperatures are still quite warm. All of these factors help support storm formation.
But as we saw with Rafael, hurricane season doesn’t always play by the rulebook and anything can happen.
Jennifer Gray is weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been reporting on the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the past 20 years.
