A recent poll in the battleground state of Pennsylvania found Jewish voters favored Harris over Trump by 12 points, 55% to 43%, according to a poll conducted by the Honan Strategy Group earlier this month and obtained by NBC News.
The findings are actually somewhat encouraging for Trump: There’s little other data to compare it to in Pennsylvania because this demographic isn’t surveyed often, but past surveys have shown that between 60% and 70% of Jewish voters nationwide have backed Democrats in recent presidential elections, so the findings may signal a slight shift toward Trump.
And with Pennsylvania being the battleground state with the largest number of Jewish voters, even a small shift in support for the former president could make a big difference.
The polling companies recruited their sample by contacting voters with common Jewish surnames and asking respondents to describe themselves in response to questions. Voted The survey of 400 Jewish voters was conducted from July 26 to Aug. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The survey was commissioned by the TEACH Coalition/Orthodox Coalition, a Jewish advocacy group that has been involved in recent elections, including Trump’s primary victory against New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman earlier this year.
“We were surprised at how close the votes were between Harris and Trump,” said Maury Litwick, founder of the TEACH Coalition. “When you look at the Jewish vote in presidential elections, the Democratic candidate usually wins in the 60s, sometimes in the low 70s, but never by such narrow margins as this one did.”
The survey found that Harris’ favorability rating among those surveyed was +10, while Trump’s was -19. On Israel, 53% said they thought Harris supports the Jewish state, while 39% said she either doesn’t support it or actively opposes it. On Trump, 44% said he handles U.S.-Israeli relations well or well.
Roughly two-thirds of respondents said the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and rising anti-Semitism had made them more likely to vote.
Interestingly, the survey found that the inclusion of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who is Jewish, as Harris’ running mate had virtually no effect on Trump’s approval rating.
