In California, concentrations of coronavirus in wastewater are rising in some areas, along with statewide test positivity rates, potentially signaling an earlier than usual start to the summer COVID-19 season.
The trend comes as the newest family of coronavirus subvariants, collectively known as FLiRT, has seen a large increase across the country.
of FLiRT variants These variants, officially known as KP.2, KP.3 and KP.1.1, have overtaken the dominant winter strain, JN.1. In the two weeks to Saturday, they were estimated to account for 50.4% of the country’s coronavirus cases, up from 20% a month ago.
California is not seeing the decline in coronavirus infections seen earlier this spring, and state health officials said they estimate spread is now stable or slowly increasing.
“Several areas in California have been experiencing suggested elevated concentrations of COVID-19 in wastewater since early May. COVID-19 test positivity rates have been gradually increasing since May,” the state health department said in a statement to The Times on Friday.
In the seven days ending Monday, about 3.8% of COVID-19 tests came back positive, up from 1.9% in late April. (Last summer, test positivity peaked at 12.8% in late August.)
Doctors at hospitals in Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area are also seeing an increase in the spread of coronavirus cases.
“We are certainly seeing a slight increase, and this is all due to what’s called the FLiRT variants,” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional director of infectious diseases for Kaiser Permanente Southern California.
So far, the increases have been seen mainly in Kaiser’s outpatient settings.
“Every time a new variant emerges, unfortunately, [overcome immunity resulting from prior infection]”Obviously, if it’s been a while since someone was vaccinated, they’re not going to have the same level of protection as someone who was recently vaccinated,” Hudson said.
In San Francisco, infectious disease doctors are noticing an increase in patients being hospitalized with pneumonia caused by COVID-19.
“We’re seeing a lot more COVID-19 patients coming into hospitals than we would expect,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco. Though the numbers are only a handful, he said, “it’s definitely noticeable.”
Based on analysis of wastewater data, Chin Hong said coronavirus activity “is increasing, and we know it’s increasing fast.”
“Last year, I think it was late June when it started to pick up, and this year, we’re now in late May, so it’s a little early, but we’re starting very low,” Chin Hong said.
And anecdotally, people in the Bay Area seem to be talking about COVID more, Chin-Hong said, recalling hearing a story a few days ago about a COVID case in someone’s child’s class.
“The numbers are not necessarily alarming right now, but we are at the start of summer so we expect them to be,” Chin Hong said.
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has also seen a slight increase in cases in recent days.
From May 10 to 15, the most recent data available, there was an average of 82 to 92 new COVID-19 cases per day, up from early spring. Los Angeles County health officials said in a statement to The Times that from March 25 to May 9, there was an average of 60 to 80 new cases per day. Case numbers generally reflect tests done in health care facilities and do not include at-home tests. They also do not take into account infections among people who have not been tested.
“It remains to be seen whether the slight increases of recent days will become a sustained increase. Due to the low number of cases, it is difficult to assess the true trends at this time,” the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said.
Coronavirus concentrations in Los Angeles County wastewater have remained relatively stable at 9% of last winter’s peak, but the data from these studies has a large reporting lag, and the most recent data available covers a 10-day period ending May 11.
Elsewhere in the state, virus levels in sewage are rising. Santa Clara County — Northern California’s most populous state and home to Silicon Valley. In recent weeks, Palo Alto’s wastewater has reached a “high” threshold for coronavirus levels.
With the summer travel season kicking into high gear over this year’s Memorial Day weekend, doctors are urging people to consider getting up to date on their vaccinations, especially those at high risk for serious complications from COVID-19.
In California, only 36% of people 65 and older have received the latest version of the COVID-19 vaccine, which first became available in September. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending everyone 6 months of age or older get the first dose of the latest version of the vaccine. A second dose is also recommended for people 65 and older if it has been at least four months since their last shot.
It’s especially important for older people to get at least one up-to-date vaccine dose: Dr. Chin Hong says all of the severe COVID-19 patients he’s seen recently hadn’t received an up-to-date vaccine since September, and were elderly or immunocompromised.
“People are still being hospitalized, and CDC data released in February showed that more than 95% of those hospitalized had not received the latest 2023-2024 vaccine,” the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said. CDC Data People who have received the latest vaccine have been shown to be 54% more protected against COVID-19 infection than those who have not been vaccinated.
Doctors say factors to consider for older adults considering getting their second COVID-19 vaccine now include travel plans and whether they have a job that puts them in contact with a lot of people. There’s plenty of time to get vaccinated now, and with the new formulation due for the fall, they’re eligible.
“Getting that extra dose now will ensure we have the protection to get through this summer wave,” Hudson said.
For many people, COVID-19 no longer means a trip to the hospital, “but for some it’s a big deal,” Chin-Hong said. “The people I saw in the hospital were very sick and stayed there for a while.”
Nationwide, more than 43,000 people have died since early October. Died According to the CDC, there are more than 100,000 COVID cases in California, including more than 3,400. In contrast, the flu is probably as a result Deaths nationwide have fallen, down an estimated 25,000 in the same period.
According to the Los Angeles County Department of Health, the risk of death for hospitalized COVID-19 patients is higher than for those with influenza, especially among older patients.
“A lot of things can happen while you’re in the hospital, including the possibility of contracting a hospital-acquired infection, so you always want to avoid hospitalization,” Chin Hong said.
California recently reached a key COVID-19 milestone: zero deaths in a single calendar day on April 2, a feat that had not been achieved since the beginning of the pandemic. Los Angeles County also recorded a record low in deaths, with the weekly average number of deaths per day being 0.14 for the seven days ending April 2.
“Getting to the point where we see zero deaths from COVID-19 is truly a triumph of science,” Hudson said, praising factors including the development of vaccines and anti-COVID drugs and improved techniques for treating patients.
Still, “COVID is not just the flu or a cold,” Hudson said. “COVID can have long-term effects for some people. … Long COVID is really game-changing.”
Hudson said there is emerging evidence that the more COVID-19 infections you have, the higher your chances of getting long COVID-19, and “it appears that people in their 30s and 40s are more likely to get long COVID-19.”
While some patients have been permanently disabled by long COVID-19, Hudson said, “for most people, after probably 12 months, sometimes 18 months, all the symptoms seem to subside. But it’s a long period of time where you’re not feeling well.”
There has been much discussion that the prevalence of long COVID is declining compared to early in the pandemic, but there remains a chance that someone can develop long COVID every time they have COVID.
Some patients “have trouble breathing,” Hudson said, and some develop a condition called POTS, or postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, which can cause a rapid heart rate and dizziness.
“Long COVID can affect the autonomic nervous system in ways that we don’t 100% understand yet,” Hudson said, “but we know that people end up with this particular syndrome, and that it can be life-altering.”
In addition to keeping your vaccination up to date, doctors offer the following advice for preparing for the expected COVID surge:
• Avoid contact with sick people. Some sick people may mistake their symptoms for a “cold,” but it could be the beginning of COVID-19.
• Get tested if you’re sick, and get tested daily. It can take some time for a rapid COVID-19 test to come back positive after symptoms begin. Consider getting a rapid COVID test once a day for three to five consecutive days after the onset of cough or cold symptoms, Hudson says. That way, if you’re sick, you can take steps to isolate yourself later and limit the spread of the disease to others.
• If you get sick, plan to ask for paxlobidi. Paxlobidi is an antiviral medication that reduces the risk of hospitalization and death when taken by people who have mild to moderate symptoms and are at risk for severe COVID-19.
• Masks are less common these days, but they are a useful tool to prevent infection. If you’re on a crowded airplane and someone is coughing nearby, wearing a mask can reduce your risk of infection.
