The winter coronavirus and flu season is raging in California and across the country, and doctors and other experts say the worst of the respiratory illness is yet to come.
New data shows a notable increase in the rate in recent days. coronavirus and influenza People are testing positive for the virus, and the number of hospitalized patients testing positive for the virus is also increasing. In the workplace, the number of employees being called in sick due to infectious diseases is also increasing.
national wastewater data It has been suggested that this winter could see the highest number of coronavirus infections in a given week since Omicron's first wave began in fall 2021.
“And we're probably not there yet,” says Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, Kaiser Permanente Southern California's infectious disease regional director. “If you look at some of the data that we can extrapolate from wastewater, by about January 10th, we'll probably be seeing about 2 million cases per day in the United States.”
The good news is that the number of people becoming seriously ill is still lower than last year, when a “triple outbreak” of coronavirus, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) flooded hospitals.
According to Hudson, omicron waves peaked at about 5 million per day in 2021-2022.
This winter, by contrast, far fewer people with severe coronavirus infections have required intensive care, even though many people have been sick.
Influenza is also making its presence felt.
“We're seeing a dramatic increase in influenza,” said Dr. Caroline Goldzweig, chief medical officer of the Cedars-Sinai Health Network.
When it comes to demand for outpatient care, “we're definitely seeing a huge demand,” said Dr. Chris Hiromura, associate program director for family medicine training at Adventist Health White Memorial Hospital in Boyle Heights. .
“We are definitely seeing a significant spike in outpatient coronavirus cases and general viral illnesses,” he said, adding that there has also been a modest increase in respiratory illnesses severe enough to require hospitalization. He said that
of Fee Los Angeles County has seen an increase in the number of people testing positive for coronavirus and influenza over the last month. In the week ending Dec. 30, 18% of county surveillance lab tests tested positive for influenza, up from 10% a month earlier. As for coronavirus, 13.5% tested positive, up from 9.9% the previous month.
“Just like our inpatient units, our emergency department is extremely busy,” said Dr. Graham Tse, chief medical officer at MemorialCare Miller Children's and Women's Hospital Long Beach. “This is a mixture of three viruses: influenza, COVID-19, and RSV, but many other respiratory viruses that circulate in the winter have also been identified.”
Nationally, 34,798 people were newly hospitalized after testing positive for coronavirus in the week ending December 30, an increase of 20% from the previous week and the highest weekly total in almost a year. became. Last winter, new hospitalizations peaked at 44,542 for the week ending December 31, 2022.
California recorded 3,516 new coronavirus-positive hospitalizations in the week ending Dec. 30, an increase of 7% from the previous week, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The state's peak last winter was 5,260 new hospitalizations in the final week of 2022.
Since Oct. 1, the CDC has reported an average of about 1,400 COVID-19 deaths per week nationwide. During the same period last year, about 2,400 people died each week from coronavirus infections.
On Friday, seven California counties joined the CDC's “low” to “moderate” tier for coronavirus positive hospitalizations. Alameda and Contra Costa counties in the Bay Area. and in the Central Valley and Sierra, Stanislaus, Merced, Tuolumne and Mariposa counties. Los Angeles County and the four-county Sacramento region had already reached the mid-level.
More contagious subvariants may be driving the spread of the new coronavirus. Nationally, the JN.1 subvariant was estimated to account for 62% of coronavirus samples in the two weeks ending Saturday. It accounted for 39% of the sample in the previous comparable period.
Last winter's viral “triple pandemic” placed a heavy burden on hospitals, and the burden of RSV has fallen especially heavily on pediatric facilities. Although there have been many RSV cases this winter, “it's not as severe as last winter,” Hudson said.
Overall, “what's different this year is that this seems to be impacting adults more, especially people over 65,” Hudson said.
Even if your symptoms of COVID-19 are relatively mild, you are at risk of worsening underlying health problems. For example, if you have a lung disease such as emphysema and contract COVID-19, you may need to be hospitalized to get additional oxygen, Hudson said.
Influenza also keeps many sick from work.
“We're definitely seeing a pretty significant increase in influenza … primarily an increase in outpatient cases,” Hudson said. “But, you know, the flu is pretty devastating. For people who haven't experienced it, I always describe it as being like getting hit by a Mack truck, because it's actually Because that's the only way you can really understand how uncomfortable it makes you feel.”
In recent months, concerts have been canceled due to the flu, and performances have been put on hold. christina aguilera and rock band kiss.
One of the problems Hudson has noticed in recent months is that people may have been infected with COVID-19, but rapid tests are taking a long time to produce positive results. That's what I'm doing. Previously, using rapid tests, people could test positive for coronavirus one to two days after the onset of symptoms, Hudson said. Currently, a positive result may not appear until perhaps his fourth day after symptoms begin.
People who initially test negative for COVID-19 despite having symptoms and then do not retest are actually infected with COVID-19 and are contagious but not infected. “It could be giving us a false sense of security,” Hudson said.
Hudson said the delay in accurate test results is likely a result of people building up immunity to the coronavirus over the years, such as through vaccinations or past infections, which is extending the testing period.
Doctors say it's important that people take steps to reduce their risk of contracting or developing serious complications from COVID-19, influenza and other viral illnesses. That includes getting new COVID-19 and influenza vaccines this winter, which many people have yet to receive. Babies, pregnant women, and the elderly can also be vaccinated against RSV.
“People who are diligent about getting up-to-date with vaccinations are less likely to develop severe disease,” Goldzweig said.
Although COVID-19 is less deadly than the more dire stages of the pandemic, it is important to recognize that it is not just a common cold virus.
“We are still seeing people with long-term infections with COVID-19, even if they have had the virus before or have been vaccinated,” Goldzweig said.
Even young people can have an “approximately 20% increased risk of heart attack or stroke” within six months of contracting COVID-19, and “for people in their 30s and 40s, this That's a pretty big increase,” Hudson added. So while COVID-19 may feel like the common cold to some people, “it can have long-term effects that we are only beginning to understand.” That’s where I am.”
“It's not about living in fear. It's important to understand that there are risks to this beyond a run-of-the-mill sore throat,” Hudson said.
The latest wave also continues to reduce the number of infections among people who have never had COVID-19 before, including Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Translational Institute at Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla.
Topol was infected last month and continued to be careful to avoid the coronavirus, but became infected after a co-worker with whom he shares an office contracted the virus. Topol said his colleague was similarly cautious, and neither of them wore masks when sharing an office. It is not known how her colleague became infected.
“A lot of new hosts are being scammed right now,” Topol said.
In an op-ed published in the Times, Topol said the coronavirus has the ability to continue accumulating mutations and has “proved to be extremely resilient” and that “it has not turned into a common cold. ” he wrote.
To truly return to normal, we will need new orally inhaled vaccines that “achieve high levels of mucosal immunity and protection and are resistant to mutations,” Topol wrote. Also helpful is an “improved variant-resistant shot with increased protection and durability.” He said these efforts fall short of the urgent priorities that need to be completed this year.
“We have to figure out how to stop infection and transmission as quickly as possible,” Topol said in an interview. “That's what we're missing right now. That's how we get back to normal. This is how we get variant-proof. That way we can rest and feel really good.” Become.”
