Earlier this year, concerns about Omicron’s new “super strain” were real and growing.
Researchers in Cyprus have identified a variant of COVID-19 that has characteristics of both a lethal Delta and a highly contagious, immune-evading variant of Omicron. The new variant, ‘Deltaclone’, which came to be known as the ‘Franken virus’, was a combination of two strains.
Delta Kron failed to take off and soon disappeared. A second Delta-His Omicron hybrid emerged later and subsided.
But the phenomenon that triggered it is likely to occur this fall. This is fueled by multiple Omicron spin-offs that seem increasingly similar, both to each other and older versions of the scourge.
They are expected to be the most immune-evading and contagious versions of the virus to date. Their similarity can be a blessing or a curse. That can make them easier to fight or harder to control.
As Omicron evolves, in variants such as Alpha, Gamma, and Delta, it “rediscovers previously used solutions while bringing some new along its lineage.” Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, luck.
“That’s the fascinating part of evolution,” he said. “We see the same scraps of fabric being used to make new quilts.”
Different Paths, Same Goal
Raj Rajnarayanan, Ph.D., Associate Professor and Associate Dean of Research at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, said that the fall wave of COVID could be driven by multiple subspecies (up to five or more), but not all of them. The difference may be slight. ,arc. luck.
In a form of parallel evolution called convergent evolution, variants are amassing identical sets of related mutations. In other words, multiple strains of the same virus pick up similar mutations that help evade immunity and facilitate the spread of the virus.
One example: the globally dominant BA.5 wave is starting to recede in many places, but its spin-offs are picking up mutations that promote immune evasion.Policy (CIDRAP), communicated luck.
“I have never seen this kind of immunity avoidance before,” he said, about the increase in the ability of the mutant that dodges the immune system and the tools to strengthen the immune system such as vaccines and treatment.
COVID strains, on the other hand, are mutating through a process called recombination. This is the same strategy used by the so-called Deltaclone strain. In this scenario, two variants of him merge into one. Case in point: According to Rajnarayanan, the new variant XBB, a merger of two different Omicron spawns, is the most immune-evading COVID strain ever seen.
Unlike the first Deltacron (confirmed only in a single laboratory, suggesting that it may be due to laboratory contamination), XBB has been tested globally in places such as Bangladesh, Israel, Singapore, Germany and Denmark. He said it was found inside.
Does the confusing confusion cause a certain “Super virus” conceivate the conversion caused by the mixture of all Omicron spawns that occur this fall?
Experts say it’s impossible to know. But Omicron may be nearing “local fitness peak.” That said, this variant, while still evolving rapidly, could soon become less capable of spreading and evading the human immune system than its predecessor.
“I think we’re running out of options,” Ray said of Omicron. “It doesn’t mean we’ve reached a peak in diffusion, but we may hit some limit.”
A new enemy this winter?
If Omicron is actually peaking in terms of performance, the possibility of opening a completely new subspecies, such as DELTA, who arrived in the United States in the summer of 2021 and Omicron a few months later. there is.
“There could be a Pi lurking somewhere with a new set of solutions,” says Ray, referring to the possibility of another major variant along the alpha, beta, gamma, delta and omicron lineage. I said. “If the virus runs out of space to make favorable changes, new variants may emerge that change the calculus of all of us.”
He continued: But I think it makes sense to believe that it will happen this winter. “
Osterholm agrees that the world “can be in a situation where pie or sigma emerges.”
“None of us know. That’s the challenge now,” he said. “We’ve been very humble and have no idea what the next pair of shoes will drop.
He added that there is a possibility that the number of cases may gradually decrease, as he may be “starting to see what I call” soft landing. “
But Osterholm sees no evidence that COVID is turning into a seasonal virus like flu, and that a once-a-year vaccine will suffice, as some White House officials have recently suggested. I am.
The virus is a “three-act play,” he says.
“I think we’re just in act two,” he said. “That’s the problem.”
This story is originally Fortune.com
.
