Repeating the pattern of the previous year, coronavirus infections are slowly rising in some parts of the country, portending a possible fall-winter outbreak. But experts said in interviews that the number remains low for now and is unlikely to reach the fearsome highs seen in past winters.
According to data collected from , the number of infected people has been on an upward trend for about four weeks. Wastewater monitoring, positive test rates, and number of hospitalizations and emergency department visits. Taken together, these figures give researchers and public health officials the first glimpse into how the coronavirus is a post-pandemic seasonal threat, permanently entrenched in the infectious disease landscape.
Wastewater analyzes show the greatest increase in the Northeast and South, followed by the West and Midwest. Hospitalizations continue after bottoming out at the end of June. little by little upwards Again, fortunately very slowly.
The test-positive rate rose to 7.6 percent, a level last seen in November 2021, the summer of 2021, just before the delta variant swept the nation.
“This is the fourth summer we’ve seen waves starting around July, often starting in the south,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security.
Nearly all Americans have been repeatedly infected, vaccinated, or both to build multiple layers of immunity, so this winter the virus is unlikely to cause the kind of harm it saw in previous seasons. .
Still, the virus can still pose a serious threat to the elderly, pregnant women, those with weakened immune systems, or those with certain chronic illnesses.
The death toll is the lowest since the pandemic began. about one-tenth January level. Currently, most deaths from the virus occur in adults over the age of 75. But experts say the true death toll will only be known at the end of the year, after the fall-winter respiratory epidemic is over.
“We are in a very different situation, but COVID-19 is still there,” said Caitlin Jetelina, a public health expert and author of a widely read newsletter. .your local epidemiologist”
“I think it would be a disservice to the public to say it’s over, let’s move on, because this winter will be chaotic and a lot of people will die,” she added. “This is never acceptable to the public health world, especially as it is preventable.”
Researchers are trying to assess how the latest COVID-19 vaccines and new variants could change the course of the pandemic. According to the most pessimistic estimates, if no vaccine is available and circulating variants evade most immune defenses, COVID-19 could kill around 830,000 people nationwide between September and April. 9,000 people could be hospitalized and about 87,000 could die.
In a best-case scenario, with people of all ages choosing the latest vaccine and its susceptible variants, COVID-19 will cause 484,000 hospitalizations and 45,000 deaths. It can turn into a person, which is about the same as flu season.
“Based on these projections, COVID-19 is likely to remain the leading cause of death in the United States for the foreseeable future,” said Justin Ressler, an epidemiologist at the UNC Gillings International School of Public Health, who coordinated the research effort. .
Given the range of estimated death tolls, COVID-19 falls somewhere between liver disease and diabetes as a cause of death. “Even in its most optimistic scenario, it is entering the mortality range of the top 10 causes of death in the United States,” said Dr. Ressler.
Experts are particularly concerned about the transmission of the new coronavirus with respiratory syncytial virus, influenza and other pathogens. Last year, many hospitals struggled to bear the weight of the so-called triple demic of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, even though the three waves of infections seemed slightly out of sync.
RSV peaked in November, About twice as many hospitalizationsIncluding children, as they were in the years before the pandemic. The flu peaked in December and that may have contributed. More than 58,000 people have died.
An estimated 50,000 people died from the novel coronavirus between November and March. It is unclear whether the virus will behave similarly this winter, or whether it will shift to a new seasonal pattern.
“This fall is something that we epidemiologists are watching with great curiosity,” Dr. Jetelina said. “I think many of us are cautiously optimistic that a new normal breathing phase will begin to arrive.”
Even if the peaks of each virus wave were further apart than last year, the health system could be in trouble.
“Even before COVID-19, it was very difficult for the healthcare system to keep up with the surge in cases,” Dr. Rivers said. “In fact, if this is what we expect year-over-year to continue, I think the healthcare system will need to adjust to accommodate that increased burden.”
Dr. Rivers said the coronavirus remains a more formidable threat than the other two respiratory infections.
Unlike influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, which tend to disappear in the warmer months, coronavirus infections begin to rise in July and remain high through February. “We’re going to have to be vigilant for a good part of this year,” Dr. Rivers added.
One notable change from the past few years is that instead of a single major coronavirus variant, there now appears to be a cluster of virus types all derived from the omicron branch. Viruses are now mutating at a more constant rate, similar to the pace of evolution of influenza viruses, Dr. Ressler said.
A vaccine, expected this fall, is designed to target a variant called XBB.1.5 that circulated this spring. Even if a vaccine isn’t perfectly adapted to the strains that will circulate in the coming months, it’s still likely to prevent severe, if not infectious, illness and death.
Dr. Ressler and his colleagues estimated that vaccinating Americans of all ages could reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths by about 20 percent.
No researcher predicts a return to the worst of the pandemic. However, if the number of infected people increases, wear a mask again in crowded indoor spaces, get tested if you have symptoms, and be considerate of those around you who may be at higher risk if infected. Some recommend that you consider
“Whether or not we’re completely out of the pandemic and settled into our seasonal routines, I’m going to say yes,” Dr. Rivers said. “But I’m also prepared to be surprised, because this virus has surprised me before.”
