Press play to listen to this article
LONDON — Rishi Sunak knows he wants friends on the world stage. But to make some, we need to explain the kind of friendship he offers.
Britain’s new prime minister arrives in Bali, Indonesia, for the G20 summit on Monday afternoon, and observers expect him to set the first indicators of Britain’s foreign policy under his leadership.
After the combative and unpredictable reputation of its predecessor, Sunak’s first task is to smooth the feathers ruffled by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and restore Britain’s reputation for reliability.
One of his first actions after taking office was to call French President Emmanuel Macron a friend. This contrasts with Truss’ once purposeful refusal to do so. Sunak called for bilateral negotiations with his French counterpart at his COP27 climate summit in Egypt this week. The meeting was characterized as “very warm” by one of his No. 10 officials. It also distinguishes the new prime minister from Johnson, who had a difficult relationship with Macron.
But Sunak’s warm words to one of Britain’s oldest allies aside, the prime minister’s advisers are acutely aware that beyond the overture he lacks a vision for Britain’s role internationally. .
Unlike Johnson and Truss, who were both foreign ministers before moving to 10 Downing Street, Snack has spent two years as prime minister following a seven-year career in parliament, where he oversaw the economic response to the coronavirus. As defined, came to power. Not surprisingly, Sunak’s advisers say he’s looking to play to his strengths in economics as they begin crafting his policy priorities.
British officials expect international economic security issues to come to the fore, as they did after the 2008 financial crisis, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices and inflation soaring. doing.
The prime minister at the time, Gordon Brown, was also a former prime minister. At his G20 summit in London in 2009, he brokered “global solidarity” to agree on a package of aid to the global economy.
At a ministerial meeting earlier this week, Sunak referred to the G20 summit during the financial crisis. His spokesman told ministers that Bali faces common economic challenges and that it is an opportunity to “show people at home how it can help.”
But before he can assume global leadership, Sunak must restore economic stability at home. A 10th official said, “The only good foreign policy is one built on a strong economic foundation.”
“He came to the G20 from a fairly weak position,” said former British diplomat Peter Ricketts. “The UK, which has brought its financial system to the brink of collapse under the Truss, has one of the lowest growth and highest inflation rates in the G7, if not the G20.
“Everyone will be aware that he faces major domestic economic problems at home. Frankly, he is not in the best position to provide leadership in that area.” .
Also, Sunak doesn’t have much money. David Lawrence, a research fellow at Chatham House think tank, said Britain’s fiscal situation severely limits the options for the next prime minister.
“Whether the Indo-Pacific tilts [to strengthen economic ties in the region]whether it is to make the UK a technological superpower or to fund defense, aid and diplomacy, we need to be able to pay for it,” said Lawrence. “And if the economy weakens, it becomes even harder.”
One consequence of this is that the UK has cut its international aid spending, and this has not gone unnoticed abroad. Of the former Department for International Development (DFID), which Prime Minister Johnson merged into the Foreign Office, Ricketts said, “Our country’s reputation as a country with serious development policy, which was very strong in the days of DFID, has been greatly diminished. there is,” he said. “It would rather weaken his hand and be noticed by the G20.”
two big questions
Sunak may be the new kid on the block, but his presence is a sideshow and hardly ever registers during a summit of great geopolitical importance.
All eyes will be on the highly anticipated meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for Monday.
It will also be the first G20 summit to be held since the invasion of Ukraine, and will be attended by President Volodymyr Zelensky, in the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Both China and Ukraine present challenges for Sunak, especially in terms of domestic acceptance of his approach. His instincts for China were softer than most of his party, and as prime minister, he sought significantly closer economic ties with Beijing.
Tory Chinese hawks are nervous that Sunak’s premiership will significantly ease Britain’s stance on Beijing, with former prime minister George Osborne, who oversaw the so-called “golden age” of British-China relations, Pointing out the fact that he’s back. Ministry of Finance.
“For China, I think we can expect Boris continuation, not Truss continuation,” said one government official, referring to the harsh rhetoric of Sunak’s predecessor. “Some of it dials back.”
Sunak has significantly strengthened his stance in this summer’s Conservative leadership election, describing China as “the greatest long-term threat to the UK and global economy and national security”. Pressure groups, including the China Study Group of Conservative MPs, have proposed changes to his Sunak approach at this summer’s policy meeting, monitoring his visit to Bali to see if he could carry out his election promises. Seeking high cues.
As for Ukraine, the UK is at the forefront of the Western response, but the question is whether Sunak can sustain it.
“The rhetoric will continue to be tough, but he’s not commensurate with his commitment to defense spending,” said Daniel Sleet, director of research at the Tony Blair Institute. , or could be in a delicate position, in which case the question for Sunak is how far he wants to lead or trail Ukraine if the US takes a step back.”
tilt east
The summit’s host, Indonesia, is one of the medium-sized emerging powers of the G20, balancing between the West and Russia and China.
Under Snak’s two most recent predecessors, the UK pursued what it called an Indo-Pacific tilt, seeking a closer relationship with such an economy.
As a committed Brexit supporter, the prime minister may be forced to follow the same framework. Trade Minister Greg Hands has made signing the 11-nation Indo-Pacific Trade Agreement CPTPP one of his top priorities.
Meanwhile, Sunak’s team has scheduled bilateral meetings at the G20 with Asian leaders, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It will be a forum for smoothing relations after Home Secretary Suera Braverman’s controversial intervention on immigration. shattered hope Because of last month’s trade deal.
A bilateral deal with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is also being organized, said the people, who asked not to be identified. As part of his first foreign policy as Prime Minister, Sunak struck an agreement for closer defense cooperation between Britain and Japan.
“All eyes will be on Biden and President Xi Jinping’s bilateral relationship, but the UK’s bilateral talks are also a key piece of the puzzle. Sophia Gaston, head of foreign policy at the think tank Policy Exchange, said:
“The best way for a prime minister to stay in the spotlight is to focus on advancing some of the key issues on which Britain can speak with legitimacy, such as climate action, global health and education and free trade. That’s it,” she added.
A competent atmosphere may at least soothe the nerves of those weary of a precarious relationship with Britain, but to find his place on the world stage, Sunak needs more than that. must be provided.
