Humanity is reaching the upper limit of life expectancy, according to new research.
Advances in medical technology and genetic research have not translated into significant increases in overall life expectancy, let alone an increase in the number of people reaching 100 years of age, researchers say.
“We have to recognize that there are limits,” said S. Jay Olshansky, a researcher at the University of Illinois at Chicago and the book’s lead author, and that there are limits to when people should retire and how long they can spend their entire lives. He said assumptions about how much money is needed to do so need to be reassessed. The study was published Monday in the journal Nature Aging.
Mark Hayward, a researcher at the University of Texas who was not involved in the study, called it “a valuable addition to the mortality literature.”
Life expectancy “is reaching a plateau,” he agreed. There’s always the possibility that some breakthrough could push survival to even greater heights, “but we don’t have that right now,” Hayward said.
What is life expectancy?
Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of years a baby born in a given year is expected to live, assuming current mortality rates remain constant. It is one of the most important health measures in the world, but it is also incomplete. This is a snapshot estimate, taking into account deadly pandemics, miracle cures, or other unforeseen developments that could cause millions of lives to be lost or saved. You can’t.
In the new study, Olshansky and his research partners tracked life expectancy estimates from 1990 to 2019 drawn from a database maintained by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Researchers focused on eight of the world’s longest living places: Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain and Switzerland.
The U.S. doesn’t even make the top 40, but “because we live here” and because of past bold estimates that life expectancy in the U.S. could increase dramatically this century. The United States is also on the list, Olshansky said.
Who will live the longest?
Women continue to live longer than men, and while life expectancy is still improving, the pace is slowing, the researchers found. In 1990, the average improvement was about 2.5 years per decade. In the 2010s it was 1.5 years, but in the US it was almost zero.
The United States is less likely to suffer from many of the problems that kill people before they reach old age, such as drug overdoses, mass shootings, obesity, and inequality that makes it difficult for some people to receive adequate health care. Therefore, there are more problems.
But in one calculation, the researchers estimated what would happen in all nine locations if all deaths under the age of 50 were removed. Olshansky said the increase was only for a year and a half at most.
Eileen Crimmins, a gerontology expert at the University of Southern California, said in an email that she agrees with the study’s findings. He added: “The most important issue for me personally is the dire and declining relative position of the United States.”
Why does lifespan not extend forever?
The study suggests that most people have a finite lifespan, and we’re already reaching it, Olshansky said.
“We’re squeezing less and less life out of these life-prolonging technologies because aging is getting in the way,” he says.
It may seem common to hear about people living to be 100 years old, but former US President Jimmy Carter reached that milestone last week. Just over 2% of Americans reached age 100 in 2019, compared to about 5% in Japan and 9% in Hong Kong, Olshansky said.
Experts say the number of centenarians is likely to increase in the coming decades because of population growth. The proportion of people who reach 100 years of age remains limited, Olshansky said, with fewer than 15% of women and 5% of men likely to make it that far in most countries. .
