Unlike recent temperatures, California’s COVID summer may no longer be hot, but officials caution that the virus continues to circulate at levels high enough to be highly infectious.
But any visible slowdown in infections would be good news for a state exhausted by the virus, and while weeks of measurements are needed to confirm the trajectory of infections, health officials hope the rollout of improved vaccines will help further tamp down the wave of infections.
“The cases haven’t disappeared, they’ve just gone down. They’ve just gone from ‘very high’ to ‘high,'” said Dr. Peter Chin Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.
California has endured “high” levels of coronavirus in wastewater since early June and “very high” levels since July, but for the week ending August 31, the most recent data available, levels of coronavirus in California’s wastewater have fallen back to “high,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
California is also one of 16 states currently estimated to be “in a downward trend” or “likely to be in a downward trend” of coronavirus infections, according to the agency.
Concentrations of COVID-19 in wastewater are considered “high” or “very high” in 44 states and the District of Columbia, and “moderate” in four states, although the CDC did not provide estimates for the remaining two states.
Other states with COVID estimated to be “decreasing” or “likely declining,” according to the CDC, include Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois. Seven states, including Michigan and Washington, consider COVID to be “increasing” or “likely increasing.” Twenty-four states and the District of Columbia have “stable or uncertain” COVID trends, and three states had no estimates.
But not all indicators are moving in a positive direction, and doctors are warning that travel and gatherings over the Labor Day weekend could lead to a resurgence of infections. It will be another week or so before we have a better idea of how the holiday will affect COVID trends.
In California, more than 13% of officially recorded coronavirus tests came back positive in the week ending Sept. 2, surpassing the peak of last winter and summer. A month earlier, the figure was 12%, according to the California Department of Public Health.
In Los Angeles County, wastewater coronavirus concentrations in the 10 days ending Aug. 24 reached 75% of last winter’s peak, down from 86% in the 10 days ending Aug. 17.
Official coronavirus case counts are falling, though reporting may have been interrupted by the Labor Day holiday.
During the week ending September 1, Los Angeles County reported an average of 381 coronavirus cases per day, down from 410 the previous week. This figure includes only cases confirmed by a health care provider and does not reflect home test results, as fewer people are getting tested when they feel sick.
“We’re seeing a slight uptick in cases,” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional director of infectious diseases for Kaiser Permanente Southern California.
While new COVID patients are certainly coming into doctors’ offices and clinics, Hudson said the overall numbers as of Friday don’t appear to be increasing as much as they were a month ago.
The rate of coronavirus-related emergency room visits across Los Angeles County has remained relatively high over the past six weeks, between 3.7% and 4.3%, after peaking at 5.1% last summer.
Coronavirus-related hospitalizations in Los Angeles County remain at relatively high levels for this summer but are not increasing. During the week ending August 31, an average of 447 coronavirus-positive patients were admitted to Los Angeles County hospitals each day, down from a seasonal high of 499 the previous week. The high was 620 last summer.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, coronavirus levels in wastewater are also declining: San Jose and Palo Alto wastewater treatment plants now have “moderate” coronavirus levels, and Sunnyvale has “low” levels, according to the Santa Clara County Public Health Department.
And at the University of California, San Francisco hospital, there were about 10 positive coronavirus patients as of Friday, down from a seasonal peak of about 30.
COVID-19 deaths are trending upward, an expected development that reflects the summer surge in infections. Los Angeles County recorded an average of about 2.7 COVID-19 deaths per day in the week ending Aug. 13, the most recent data available. That’s up from an average of 1 to 2 deaths that had remained steady since early July.
Deaths are also rising nationwide: 971 COVID-19 deaths were reported in the week ending Aug. 10. That’s more than double the weekly death toll since the start of the summer, but only two-thirds of the peak in mid-2023.
“We will continue to monitor COVID-19 data over the coming weeks to better understand whether this summer’s peak has truly passed,” the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said in a statement.
While the new coronavirus may be on the decline for now, doctors are urging people to get both COVID-19 and flu vaccinations ahead of the fall, when both viruses typically begin to pick up steam. Australia was recently hit by a major flu pandemic over the winter, and U.S. doctors see Australia’s experience as a possible sign of things to come.
“We’ve had an early start to the flu season and we’ve had a very high number of cases. … We expect we’re going to have a fairly active flu season,” Hudson said. “Getting the flu vaccine now will ensure you’re protected throughout the entire flu season.”
The CDC recommends everyone 6 months of age and older get up to date on this season’s COVID and flu vaccinations. According to the CDC, the best months to get vaccinated are September and October, when you can get both shots during the same visit.
There are ways to get the flu shot without getting a shot. One of these is called FluMist. Nasal spray For non-pregnant people ages 2 to 49. Needle-free flu vaccine options include: Afurulia.
Doctors have different advice on when is the ideal time to get vaccinated.
Hudson suggested getting the vaccine now, as she has already received both doses.
“We all put things off so easily,” she said. “Now is the time to really do it. Do it before things start to get hectic with everything that comes with the holidays, the kids going back to school, etc.”
Vaccines are widely available at stores including CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid, Ralphs, Vons, Albertsons, Pavilions and Safeway. As of Monday, updated COVID vaccines will be available at Kaiser’s California locations. place The vaccine is available to people aged 5 and above. Vaccinations for infants and young children are scheduled to begin in mid-September.
Sutter Health plans to begin administering COVID vaccinations in mid- or late September.
“Getting one of these vaccines is a very good way to forestall the current outbreak,” Hudson said.
Chin-Hong suggested it’s important for older adults and those who are immunocompromised to get vaccinated now if they haven’t received a COVID vaccine in over a year, but for younger people who aren’t immunocompromised, he suggested the best time to get the COVID and flu vaccines is October, as that’s closer to the peak of the fall and winter COVID and flu seasons.
Chin Hong said seniors who were last vaccinated in the spring will be able to wait until October for their next dose.
Chin Hong said COVID vaccinations offer enhanced protection against severe illness and hospitalization for at least a year. But one reason to consider waiting until October is that the best protection against infection occurs within about six to eight weeks of vaccination. That period could be longer if the vaccine closely matches the circulating subvariants, Chin Hong said.
He said he plans to get his COVID and flu shots in mid-October.
If you’re thinking about timing your COVID vaccination to maximize protection from infection before a major event like the holidays, getting the shot about two weeks before is a safe bet. Chin-Hong said immunity builds up just a few days after vaccination, but the greatest benefit comes one to two weeks after the shot.
It’s also especially important that pregnant mothers get the COVID vaccination.
“If you want to protect your baby, you should get vaccinated at least two weeks before delivery,” Chin-Hong says. “The antibodies have to cross the placenta,” and that takes time.
Hudson said wearing a mask in indoor public settings is still a good idea for people who want to avoid infection.
Reducing your risk of contracting COVID-19 also reduces your risk of long-term COVID-19 and the serious health problems it can cause. Legendary Grammy Award-winning Brazilian musician Sérgio Mendes died Thursday in Los Angeles at age 83. His family said Mendes’ health had been “deteriorating due to the effects of long-term COVID.”
Generally speaking, Long COVID can cause a variety of illnesses, including difficulty breathing, shortness of breath, difficulty maintaining blood pressure, etc. For some people, Long COVID can trigger a series of health problems that can last for months or even years.
The CDC also recommends respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination for everyone age 75 and older, and adults ages 60-74 who are at high risk for severe RSV infection. The RSV vaccine is not given annually, so people who got it last year don’t need to get it again this year, the CDC said. It can also be given at the same time as a flu or COVID shot.
Pregnant women between 32 and 36 weeks of gestation can also receive the RSV vaccine to pass protection to the fetus. RSV antibodies are also available for infants and some young children.
Times reporters August Brown and Alexandra del Rosario contributed to this report.
