Late in an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2017, in Foxborough, Massachusetts, near a banner showing the score with 2 minutes and 12 seconds left in Super Bowl 51 in February. Fans standing on the floor. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
In Super Bowl LI, the Atlanta Falcons opened a commanding 28-3 lead over the New England Patriots. Televisions across America went out. Giddy “Dirty Birds” fans high-fived and began ordering apparel from the Super Bowl champions.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, the football game has four quarters and the Patriots had other plans. By the time the clock hit zero, Tom Brady’s team had pulled off an improbable comeback and won the title 34-28.
Passing legislation is a lot like playing soccer. The game has stages. Both the House and Senate must pass legislation independently of the other. Assuming there are differences of opinion, the two houses will need to reconcile those differences. That would allow the governor to decide whether to sign or veto it in the fourth quarter. If he vetoes it, the game will go into overtime, where Congress will decide whether to override the veto. Along the way, there is a shocking hit and the unexpected bounce of the ball can quickly change the trajectory of the game.
When the Mississippi House of Representatives passed full Medicaid expansion in late February, supporters of progressive policies began high-fiving in the streets. Producers of MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow Show aired a celebration. The Mississippi Democratic Party used Company X (formerly Twitter) to attack Governor Tate Reeves. Ole Miss professor James Thomas, who famously likened Trump supporters to the Hitler Youth, said: “Did we turn Mississippi blue and we just didn’t know it? ” he asked.
In the recent uproar, Gov. Brandon Pressley, who finished second in a failed Democratic challenge to Gov. Reeves on the grounds of Medicaid expansion, tweeted, “You can write it down and carve it in concrete.” It will be done,” he wrote. ” before comparing himself to David, who defeated Goliath.
Supporters of Medicaid expansion may still win the contest, but it’s too early to celebrate them.
First, everyone seemed to think Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann’s support for expansion meant the Mississippi senator was ready to act. Indeed, behind closed doors, many are concerned about the speed with which Congress is rushing this, whether expansion will actually solve the problems that proponents claim, and the potential negative impact on the state budget, workforce participation, and the nation. has been expressed. Private health insurance market.
While Democrats in the Mississippi Senate are ready and willing to vote for Medicaid expansion, getting Republican commitment is much more difficult. To the credit of Lieutenant Governor Hosemann and Senate Medicaid Chairman Kevin Blackwell, they appear to be exploring a more conservative alternative to the House version. Horsman and Blackwell have reiterated in recent weeks that any expansion plans must be conditional on prior approval of work requirements.
The House plan directs the Medicaid department to seek to obtain work requirements from President Biden by September of this year, something no expert believes will be possible Fully expanded regardless of whether it is
Senator Blackwell also said he does not want to disrupt the current private health insurance market. The House bill would expand Medicaid to 138 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL), which would remove more than 140,000 people from private health insurance plans and force them to enroll in Medicaid. In contrast, Sen. Blackwell’s framework would provide Medicaid to workers currently in the “coverage gap” without disrupting the private insurance market by increasing the FPL to 99 percent.
The Senate’s likely framework would still amount to a costly expansion of welfare far beyond the original scope of the Medicaid program, but it would reduce many of the risks associated with full expansion. This would limit the possibility of dramatically overshooting enrollment and cost estimates that have plagued other expansion states. In effect, it would require new registrants to be reliably working, reducing a very real risk to Mississippi’s workforce participation. This is something that more providers will accept and provides a path to cover uncompensated care without moving people out of private insurance, which actually pays providers more than Medicaid.
Of course, no one has ever seen the Senate’s plan on paper. The deadline for the Senate to pass its own expansion bill passed this Thursday, but the bill passed without being brought to the floor. Sen. Blackwell indicated that the Senate intends to launch a so-called “all-out attack” on the House’s Medicaid expansion plan and insert its own plan at a later date.
In the meantime, senators are meeting with both the governor and lieutenant governor.
Advocates expected the Senate to simply agree to expand Medicaid and initially underestimated Reeves’ determination. However, the governor has told senators that he intends to veto the Medicaid expansion bill if it passes, and Reeves is vociferously rallying against the measure. Whispers that it might be withdrawn have faded.
In a public post Friday, Reeves praised Senate leadership for “not rushing straight to expansion.” “Recognizing the need for real work requirements is a good first step,” Reeves said, adding, “The day Joe Biden doesn’t have the votes to enact the welfare policies he likes, Mississippi… “It’s a good day for us,” he concluded.
It’s already half time. The lead that full expansion supporters initially held appears to have disappeared. Look at how the ball bounces forward.
