With COVID-19 cases on the rise again, it seems like everyone is infected or knows someone who is. Without the robust data tracking available during the public health emergency, it is difficult to get a clear picture, but we can still observe some trends.
The number of people hospitalized has increased by 20% in the past week and has been on the rise since the beginning of November. This trend is reflected across the United States, except in the western United States, where approximately 10 percent of U.S. counties are now considered to have high hospitalization rates.
Available wastewater monitoring data also shows that most facilities (74%) are reporting higher levels of the virus, with 44% reporting the highest levels ever recorded. . However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes that different wastewater sampling sites began collecting at different times, meaning these metrics are relative and must be combined with other data. .
“We've got wastewater data, we've got hospitalization data, we've got a lot of anecdotes,” said William Schaffner, a professor in the division of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. “And my colleagues across the country that I talk to on conference calls are experiencing pretty much the same thing.”
Schaffner said the increase in cases can be attributed to winter weather and associated travel and gatherings. The current respiratory virus season has “certainly not been helped” by lax virus mitigation measures.
“Social distancing is gone. People are out and about. They want to get back to normal, and vaccine fatigue and COVID fatigue is almost evident,” Schaffner said.
He also noted that the current prevailing tensions in the United States are likely pushing up the number of infections further.
“Currently, there is a major Omicron variant, the JN.1 variant, which is highly contagious. All of these Omicron variants are contagious, but this variant is more contagious than others. variants,” Schaffner said. “It's very widespread and causes a lot of so-called mild infections, which are not serious enough to get you hospitalized, but can still be devastating for three to four days.”
The CDC's latest estimates show that the Omicron JN.1 subvariant is causing 61.6 percent of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Updated COVID-19 vaccines are still thought to be effective against the strain despite carrying mutations, but the vaccines were left on shelves without being administered to people. If left as is, there will be no effect.
Recent Report from CDC It is estimated that only 21.4% of adults have received the latest COVID-19 vaccination.
As Schaffner points out, the widely circulating virus primarily affects vulnerable and elderly people, and these are the types of patients he and his colleagues are primarily admitting. be.
The CDC categorizes counties into low, moderate, and high rates based on the severity of COVID-19 hospitalizations. About 10 percent of U.S. counties are considered to have high hospitalization rates, and 37.2 percent are considered to have moderate levels of hospitalization, according to the latest federal data.
The CDC stopped publishing national case data after the public health emergency ended last year, but coronavirus hospitalization data is still updated regularly. This trend data now serves as a community indicator of what recommended actions people should take to protect their health.
If a county is experiencing moderate or high levels of hospitalizations, the CDC advises that people at high risk of severe illness wear masks in indoor public settings. People who interact with immunocompromised people should consider wearing a mask or getting tested before meeting them.
But medical officials say the current hospitalization rate is not overwhelming the health system, unlike in previous years. And Schaffner said that despite the increase in cases, the U.S. is not currently experiencing a surge in cases.
“I'm reluctant to call this a surge because we used that term last season and the season before that when we had a very significant increase that put a serious strain on our hospital system,” he said. said. “We're seeing a significant seasonal increase. I don't think we're at last year's levels.”
Most health experts say they expect the current uptick in virus activity to continue into January, including Maria van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization's coronavirus technical lead. It said this week that it expects “this trend to continue throughout the winter in northern regions and into January.” hemisphere. ”
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